The adjustment of the list of Hong Kong stocks twice a year (March and September) is coming soon. This is an important moment to decide whether listed companies can get blessings in the south.
HSI will announce the results of the series of Hang Seng Index (28629.92, 115.87, 0.41%) for the fourth quarter of 2018 on Friday, February 22, 2019, and the relevant changes will be March 2019. Effective on the 11th (Monday).
According to the taste characteristics of the South China Fund, we divided these potential targets into six categories, namely: (1) high-valued concept stocks, (2) traditional industry stocks with low valuations, and (3) New economic stocks, (4) small and beautiful, (5) cyclical, (6) others, and also added some short comments, hoping to provide more reference for everyone, and then conduct an in-depth analysis of individual stocks.
I. High valuation of stocks
South interest interest: ★
Stock price explosiveness: ★
As the name implies, this category is lacking A company with a high valuation of fundamental support or a company with a difficult outlook.
Taking Fosun Travel (1992.HK) as an example, the company is the world's largest resort group, which operates the world-renowned Club Med. It has recently released a positive profit forecast, which is expected in 2018. Turning losses into profits, the net profit will be no less than RMB 350 million.
coupled with the company's plan to move from heavy asset to light asset, the goal is to build a C2M (Customer to Maker) tourism ecosystem, which seems to be very attractive.
However, the company is still doing the traditional hotel tourism industry. The future income growth depends on increasing the number of resorts or raising prices. Fosun Travel has always created a high-end brand image, but the previous poisoning incident has adversely affected the image.
Of course, the brand value of Club Med will not be easily smashed, but given the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, the industry outlook is difficult to grasp, and the company has many pressures for future development. Moreover, investors who are not Club Med users may be completely uninterested in the company.
data shows that the company is nearly 3The average daily turnover of 0 trading days is about 1.7 million yuan. Compared with the market value of 18 billion yuan, it undoubtedly shows that there is a lack of market interest, and it is difficult to attract the favor of the South Bank.
Second, the traditional industry stocks with low valuation
South interest interest: ★★★
Stock price explosive power: ★★★
The industries in the department are more traditional, and there are also many relevant targets in Hong Kong stocks. But in the industry itself, the growth is stable enough, and the company's business layout is just right, in fact, it has certain appeal.
However, due to the greater liquidity of other large companies that have entered Hong Kong Stock Connect, these companies therefore have a certain liquidity discount on their valuation. With the entry into the Hong Kong stock market, this liquidity problem may be improved, and the stock price is expected to rise with the elimination of the liquidity discount.
Third, new economic stocks
South interest rate of interest: ★★★★
Stock price explosive power: ★★
Reviewing the new economy listed in recent years Many of the stocks have fallen into the dilemma of 'breaking the hair', but this has not stopped the enthusiasm of the Hong Kong stock market for the moment when the new economic stocks went to Hong Kong IPO. What is the reason?
In addition to the fact that some people really believe in the future of the industry, the flow of speculation in the new economic stocks is also a very important factor. Generally speaking, this type of new economic stocks has been fired up after the listing, or it has been listed at a very high market value. In the end, it will not win the basic factors, and the stock price will gradually decline. Formed a lot of "crab loans."
The conditions for speculation are basically few. In the short period of time, most companies' profits or business growth are weak. I believe that even if the South Bank funds are interested in the new economic stocks, under the pressure of a large number of "crab loans", It is also difficult to form enough power to support their stock price explosion.
Four, small and beautiful
South interest rate of interest: ★★★★★
Stock price explosive power: ★★★★
Small and beautiful series It belongs to some companies that are in a medium-to-high growth level and enjoys a small growth company.
The stock market that rose last year is believed to be still fresh in memory, crazy and then policyThe introduction of the killing of the valuation, but now with the stock market recovery valuation has recovered a lot. In the case of economic instability, the growth of the education industry can be regarded as relatively stable, and the industry is willing to pay dividends, many funds are still willing to stay in the education stocks, which is the main reason why the strength of the rebound is so large.
Therefore, even if I hope that education (1.24, 0.02, 1.64%) has rebounded a lot in this round of repairs, but from the attractiveness of the industry, the stock price still has a chance to come to a short burst.
As for the other Sun City Group (1.43, 0.04, 2.88%), which owns a partial shareholding in Vietnam Hoi An Resort, the company is the absolute overlord of the Macau gaming agency business and believes that it has sufficient capacity and resources to resort to the resort. Become a "small Macau".
Jinjie Holdings (10.8, 0.36, 3.45%) casinos in Cambodia have been a successful example of rushing overseas, and Sun City Group as the only Vietnamese consumer of Hong Kong stocks, the stock price is potentially explosive.
South interest interest: ★
Stock price explosiveness: ★
This series is mainly based on Chinese property stocks, while mainland stocks The prospect of the policy depends on the regulation and control of the policy, and it is also an industry that is difficult to grasp.
Although the current de-leverage has become a stable lever, but the overall housing market is not loose, the financing advantages of leading real estate enterprises and state-owned enterprises are still quite obvious, there will be more money in the hands of land. This means that the concentration of the industry will further increase in the future, the leader will continue to expand, and small and medium-sized housing enterprises will disappear more.
Under this logic, even if the second and third-tier housing enterprises can enter the Hong Kong stock market, the South China funds will not be interested in their interest, let alone the domestic economic downturn. And even if you want to buy, why does South China Fund not choose a leading company that has been listed in Hong Kong?
However, after the entry into the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the major shareholders of such in-houses will have some ideas on the financing side, and the share price will not be known as a corresponding increase.
In short, the South Capital is no longer under Wu Amon. If the company does not have enough good basic factors, it will be difficult to attract a large amount of funds to enter the South.
From the perspective of improving basic factors, rarity, and liquidity, I believe it will be easier to judge the potential explosiveness of stock prices.
The list above is of course a bit different from the final confirmation list, but it is enough to be considered as a reference.