Wealth curve

For the first time in 2000! Most of the world's assets are b

In less than two months of the opening year, global stock markets rebounded from the low level of “Christmas Eve slaughter” by about 15%, and the market value increased by $9 trillion. S&P 500, Pan-European Stoxx 600, and Nikkei 225 The world's major stock indexes such as the Hang Seng Index rose by double digits.
As of last Friday, Bloomberg’s US stock market “width” (the ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks in a certain period) hit a record high, and included NYSE-listed companies and S&P 500 constituents. A variety of metrics.
Financial blog Zeroohedge quoted Bloomberg News as of Wednesday's statistics, said the S&P 500 market, investable-grade corporate bonds, high-yield corporate bonds (ie junk grade), crude oil and gold, and other five asset classes, this year not only collective Rising, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at or above the “overbought” level of 70, this phenomenon first occurred in 2000.
In contrast, at the end of last year (December 21), Deutsche Bank found that 2018 was the worst year in the history of more than 100 years, and 93% of the assets produced negative returns. The highest since 1901; in 2017, only 1% of assets recorded negative returns for the whole year, and the proportion was the lowest in history.
According to the general definition, the relative strength index is a technical curve based on the ratio of the number of rising points and the number of rising and falling points in a certain period of time, which can reflect the degree of prosperity of the market in a certain period of time. A general RSI below 30 is a good buy signal, and above 70 is a good sell signal.
Financial blog Zerohedge believes that as all asset classes enter the “overbought” range, the bullish trades are already overcrowded, “good times are almost over.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest survey of major fund managers around the world also shows that although global stock markets rose in 2019, institutional investors continued to shift to cash, the net allocation was the highest since the end of the 2009 financial crisis:
This reflects traders There is an extreme lack of confidence in the sustainability of the rebound. The proportion of investors who believe the S&P 500 has peaked at 2931 jumped from 11% in September to 34% this month.
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett pointed out that "the fund manager survey in February showed that a large amount of funds were transferred from stocks to cash", which "does not show investors"Improvement of confidence", "The short-term position of the short sellers is still positive." The allocation to the US stock market fell to the lowest in nine months, which was 3%.
Nomura Securities cross-asset strategist Masanari Takada Zhou Lianbao pointed out that this kind of "reluctant, physically but honest" contradictory behavior looks like "panic buying", that is, those who think they "have not caught up with the car" are strengthening admission. Behavior. Systematic trend followers who suspended buying after last week's weak retail data were forced to add new multi-positions to keep up with the broader market.
In the context of most assets entering the “overbought” range, currently The market is active in two forces with opposing views.
The Nomura Securities and brokerage Piper Jaffray mentioned above believe that the S&P 500 breaks through the 200-day moving average is a strong upward momentum indicator. In the short term, the S&P market will The key point of the upside: the strong resistance level that could not be returned since November 8 last year was 2800 points. Financial media MarketWatch found that US President Trump even replied to a tweet similar to the bullish US stocks on February 19.
Another faction Point holders are paying more attention to the hidden concerns in the rebound of global asset classes. Bloom Dob quoted Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen, as saying that global stock prices may rise too fast and should be adjusted again in the future, not to mention Europe. The kinetic indicators for Asia and the United States are flashing warning signs that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is still unable to break through the 200-day moving average technology.
Crescat Capital analyst Tavi Costa points out that US stocks are currently in the traditional “bear market ups” A sharp drop in the market may come as suddenly as last year. Chris Weston, research director at Pepperstone Group, also believes that global capital markets are sending different signals, and US stocks appear to be “very tired” because of the large amount of uncertainty, if they are now “buy” In the stage of rumors, there is a high risk of “selling the facts” in the future.
Andrew Milligan, global strategy director for Standard Life Investments, said that the global stock market’s increase since the end of last year was mainly “fickle money”. In supportInstead of the fundamental logic changed:
"As long as there is a series of good news, investors will continue to invest in cash. Once they see bad signals, they will quickly leave. This time the market has widened, But the depth is not enough, that is, there is not enough foundation to maintain the increase. The news in January and February has slightly improved, and whether the stock market can be maintained depends on how quickly investors respond to extreme news.
According to the 232 investigation, the levy of automobile tariffs may be the next excuse to trigger the market to sell. The US stocks in the first quarter and second quarter of 2019 also test the market. Many companies disclosed in the Four Seasons that the operating income in the first half of this year will be The sharp slowdown. The poor retail sales data released last week has already shaken the stock market."